Innermost Thought

It's that time of year again: the holy day of all holy days for the filmophile and performing artists' set. I did a pretty good job this year of seeing most of the major pics in play and many of the films for the less prestigious categories. Just as I've likely said before, I will say again that I could KILL Oscar for bumping up the awards. The fools!!! They've shortened my ability to see the nominated films by about 3 weeks. (They used to do it in mid to late March but moved it up because the other award shows were making them look too predictable.) Don't they know that extending the time to see the films gives the films more of a chance to capitalize on their nominations!!!

For the first time since I've started my quest to know what I'm dissing when I'm dissing the Oscars I got a raging bout of film-fatigue. I'd thought to see one of the two gaping holes in my "I've seen them roster" today before the actual Oscars but just couldn't bring myself to sit through another movie. For this reason, I haven't seen The Last King of Scotland and Volver. So that's my big disclaimer.

Feel free to skip to the awards you care about.

Best Original Screenplay

Should win: Of the nominated films in this category, Pan's Labrynth edges out LMS in my book.
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine.

I still don't see the big deal about LMS. It wasn't a bad movie to be sure, but I certainly wouldn't consider it Oscar caliber. There were some holes in the story in my opinion. A good film entertains you. A great film successfully creates a unique and complete universe and manages to tell a story that surprises and entertains the viewer, while still holding true to the laws of the world it has created. The viewer should be so engaged that she has lived in that world with the characters. ****SPOILER********There is no way that Breslin's character would so easily just give up her dream of being the beauty queen because her family starts dancing with her on the pageant stage. Maybe it was an editing issue.

Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: The Departed
Will Win: The Departed. I think I may be going out on a limb here. Remember what I said about a film creating a complete universe and following the laws that universe creates? Well, Scorsese and his top-caliber actors did that in spades.
Borat could spoil my perfect record here. I didn't see it. That movie just screams "Netflix It" to me.

Best Supporting Actress

Should Win: Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls although Adrianna Barraza for Babel is a close second. Her performance as a grandmother/nanny was a large part of making that film seem better than it actually is.
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls. The truth is Jennifer is still very much a novice actress and you can tell as much in the film (very possibly due to some poor direction.) But as a debut performance, Jennifer's Effie White is stunning. In addition to the powerhouse that is "And I am telling you...", Jennifer's quieter moments as Effie were remarkably subtle, honest and solid. Most actors have to work alot longer in the business before they are secure enough to trust silence and stillness. What's more, Effie White is an award-winning role. If you sing those songs, and "go there" when Effie needs you too, you can't lose the award. A vote for Jennifer Hudson is a vote for Effie, is a vote for Florence Ballard. And those girls deserve to win. Jennifer Hudson, the actress, also has that "pulling a star from the trenches" story. Being booted from American Idol and deemed not worthy by the ever-arrogant Simon Cowell and then winning an Oscar for the most coveted musical movie role of the decade is a story too good to pass up.

Should have been nominated and possibly win: Phyllis Somerville in Little Children in place of Abigail Breslin. Throughout most of my movie-watching I didn't think I'd find a need for this category of my Oscar Predictions as much as last year when Oscar so callously overlooked the brilliant performance of Clifton Collins Jr in Capote. Then I saw Phyllis' beautiful performance. She is a stunning woman. Her intentions were so clear and precise; a breath of fresh air. It makes one long for the old days when movie stars learned how to act before they became famous. As far as Abigaul Breslin is concerned: Give me a break!! Children and dogs folks. Children and dogs. Never act with children and dogs because they don't have to do much to upstage you. If you must nominate a youngun Shareeka Epps in Half Nelson is much more Oscar-worthy. That girl is going to be a powerhouse. By the way, the WORST thing you can do to a promising young actor is give her this kind of award so young. Two words: Tatum O'Neal.

Best Supporting Actor

Should Win: Djimon Honsou for Blood Diamond. I know. I know. I didn't say Dreamgirls' Eddie Murphy. Eddie Murphy definitely has that Oscar moment in Dreamgirls in the scene where Curtis sidelines him yet again, but Mr. Hounsou has an Oscar moment in the entirety of Blood Diamond. The difference is this: Djimon Honsou is a truly gifted actor whose size and stature limits him as to the kinds of characters he can realistically play in our culture. Eddie Murphy while having the size and stature that allows him to play any number of parts, is much more limited in the scope and variety of his acting talent. Blood Diamond lucked into getting the perfect actor with Djimon Honsou. Eddie Murphy lucked into getting the right part.
Will Win: Eddie Murphy unless Norbit doesn't bite him in the ass. There is a part of me that hopes desperately to be wrong here. But the truth is, in addition to giving a surprisingly brilliant performance, Eddie has made money, lots and lots of money, for the film industry. This is likely the only chance they'll have to thank him for it.

Best Actress

Should Win: Helen Mirren for The Queen. This is probably the surest thing on the ballot. Judi and Meryl were great but they are always great and have been significantly recognized. Helen Mirren is great, she is always great and has continued to get shafted. It's an embarassment not to give her the nod for this. Although as I've stated in the past (see last year's entry under Reese Witherspoon,) Oscar usually thinks a woman is an Under-30 ONLY thing. If they don't give it to Helen, they'll give it Penelope Cruz for Volver as the upset of the night. She's beautiful and "startlet-y", the babe every guy wants to land. Kate Winslet deserves the second though. Even though she's beautiful, she's not afraid to be plain (notice I didn't say "ugly" but instead plain.) With Helen's win, Kate Winslet will take the crown for "Most Deserved of an Oscar but yet to Receive One." She was brilliant in Little Children. That movie was probably the only movie this year where I couldn't find a suitable spot to go the loo. I was too afraid I'd miss something. In Little Children, the story could travel miles within the space of a silent second.

Best Actor

Should Win: Not really sure here since I didn't see Last King of Scotland. I do know that Forrest Whitaker is a good actor with a unique style. Without seeing the movie, it's still not hard for me to believe that his performance was a powerhouse. I do think it's about time Leonardo DiCaprio won something though. He was brilliant in both Blood Diamond for which he was nominated in this category and for The Departed. I've never been a real fan of Leo's before this year but after this year's performances I can not deny the man has got the chops. What's more, this is the first year that he seems to me to be an actual man. Like many Hollywood men, age looks good on him. He'll probably be the one to beat in his next Oscar-nominated film. Ryan Gosling was good in Half Nelson but the scope of the role is kind of limiting.
Will Win: Forrest Whitaker for Last King of Scotland.

Best Director

Should Win: Martin Scorsese for The Departed No question. Scorsese is a truly gifted director whether you like his style or not. In The Departed, he outdid even himself. There is a self-confidence and subtlety in this film that shows brilliance and growth. Despite being lauded as a great director (despite Oscar's snubs) Scorsese shows that he is a director that is still evolving and that is probably one the most exciting things a movie-viewer can ask of a director.
Will Win: Scorsese for The Departed. While Clint Eastwood is a great director, I'm not sure I understand why the entire film industry tends to cream all over him. The film I affectionately like to call "Letters from Iwo-f&cking Jima" is not a great picture. It's not extraordinary and not particularly well directed. I think you do a real disservice to great directors by awarding their mediocre work. Alejandro González Iñárritu with Babel is a similar situation. I imagine he is a pretty good director. It's honestly too soon to tell. While I enjoyed Babel, it wasn't extraordinary either. The director's hand seemed particularly disturbing to me in this picture. A director should have a point of view but other than that get out of the way of the story and the actors. Iñárritu was pretty heavyhanded throughout this movie as if the subtext of every moment were "Look at my fabulous directing!!! See. SEE!!?" Also, there wasn't a single character in this movie that seemed to have a soul with the exception of Adriana Barraza. They were all just animals trying to survive. That is most certainly a director's choice. I walked away from this film not thinking about the story and the world created within the film but instead how sad and depressing the director must be as a person. That's never happened to me before in any film ever and it's not the sign of a great movie.

Best Picture

Should Win: DREAMGIRLS!!! No question. What's more, because Dreamgirls isn't in the running, this category is the George W. Bush of this year's Oscars: a Lame Duck. Whoever wins can't really be sure it is truly the best because it's not competing with the best. Who should be omitted from the current list of noms, you wonder? Well, I'll tell you. Letters from Iwo (f&cking!) Jima is not a great pic. But they do speak Japanese, it's Clint Eastwood. Consider it a snob hit. Actually seeing "Letters" taught me a lot. "Letters" might not be that good, but it is about war, and boys becoming men in the midst of flying bullets and the camraderie of their male friends. Even the stupid men are heroes in a war pic because they are at war. War is the only time that men can really be emotional with other men unless they are gay. And so they love this movie and other war pics (good or not) because it's the rare opportunity to release that kind of energy. Where Brokeback Mountain makes them squirm, Letters from Iwo Jima gives them permission to embrace. The other picture I would omit from the current noms is the pic that might actually win the category: Little Miss Sunshine. All I can say is that somebody must have called in a favor to get this one on the ballot instead of Dreamgirls. Since Dreamgirls would take Letters' place in my dreamlist, I'd replace Little Miss Sunshine with Little Children. As I've mentioned earlier, Babel is also fraught with issues. It loses its credibility in that every single character seems to make the worst decision possible. What's more the worst thing that can possibly happen always happen. Usually one instance of bad luck is more than enough to screw up a day and it's much more realistic than a myriad of worst-case scenarios all over the planet. Also Babel is a global version of last year's Oscar-winner Crash. Even though they likely had no idea that Crash was around when they filmed it, Babel's similarity is a mark against it
Will Win: The Departed. It might even win if it were against Dreamgirls. I would have really liked to see that race.

The Music

Best Original Score

You know I'm out of my depth on this one but here goes...
Should Win: Pan's Labrynth The music integrated seamlessly into this beautiful pic.
Will Win: I've honestly no idea. Notes on a Scandal is getting a little buzz but I'm staying loyal to Pan's Labrynth for this one.

Best Song

Should Win: Dreamgirls has three songs nominated. While "Listen" has gotten the buzz it makes no sense (other than as a vanity inclusion for the film's star and the song's co-writer Beyonce) within the universe of the film. "Patience" is lovely and drives the story in a very necessary way and you know what? I just realized after having seen it months earlier I can still remember the tune. "Love You I Do" was lovely and it does reveal something very important to the story. I also really liked Melissa Etheridge's "I Need to Wake Up" for An Inconvenient Truth. I'm a huge Melissa fan and the song is perfect for that movie. It sum's up the entirety of the film so well. Car's Randy Newman is an oscar favorite but I don't even really remember when that song was used. I'm going with "Patience" in Dreamgirls as a Should Win with "I Need to Wake Up" a close second.

Will Win: Melissa Etheridge, "I Need to Wake Up" for An Inconvenient Truth. Al Gore is the political equivalent of a rock star and Melissa Etheridge actually is one. It's your grandmother's Oscar if Randy Newman takes it and the Dreamgirls trinity will cancel each other out.

Best Foreign Language Film

Should Win: Pan's Labrynth Honestly, it's the only one of seen so far. Water looked really good to me though. It's in my Netflix.
Will Win: Heck I don't know. So I'm going with Pan's Labrynth.

Best Animated Feature

I only saw Cars and thought it was surprisingly substandard. The eyes of all of the Cars were really disturbing and fake looking. Monster House was a Halloween movie released in July so I'm going with Happy Feet as both the Should Win and Will Win.

The Documentaries

Feature

Should Win: Hard to say as I've only seen An Inconvenient Truth. It was a great documentary and it's subject matter was certainly more relevant to more people than any of the other nominees so I'm going with it.
Will Win: An Inconvenient Truth although Jesus Camp has gotten some buzz.

Shorts

No idea on the Should here so I'm guessing Two Hands.

The Others including Behind the Lens Awards

Cinematography

Should Win: Pan's Labrynth. This film was beautiful. Will Win: Pan's Labrynth

Film Editing

Should Win/Will Win: The Departed

Live Action Short Will Win: Binta and the Great Idea Guessing here but it's definitely the best title.

Animated Short

Will Win: Still guessing but I'm going with The Danish Poet.

The Boring Awards

Althought they probably aren't boring to those who have the expertise....
Visual Effects
Should/Will: Pirates of the Caribbean
Sound Mixing
Should/Will: Dreamgirls Lots of mixing in this one and the sound was flawless.
Sound Editing
Should/Will: Blood Diamond
Make-Up
Should/ Will Win: Pan's Labrynth
Costumes
Should/ Will Win:Dreamgirls. "Prada was contempory and designed by the market. The costumes in Dreamgirls were exsquisite.
Art Direction
Should/Will: This is a tough category as I understand it but to be clear, I probably don't understand it at all. The Prestige" was visually stunning and cohesive. Pan's Labrynth was also good. Dreamgirls was good but I sense there may have been a bit of anachronism to it's art. So I'm saying it's a tossup between Pan's Labrynth and The Prestige. UPDATE: I just saw that the Dreamgirls peeps have won a slew of Academy Awards so I'm changing my vote to Dreamgirls.

Okay. Those are my thoughts and votes. Do you think I'm nuts or right on the money?